Although the news yesterday was full of journos saying that they had not expected Jacinda Ardern to announce her resignation first thing in the morning, in reality it was always going to happen. This is a blog (an out-dated concept, left behind in the maelstrom of the toxic twittersphere, I know) that usually confines itself to the somewhat drier, non-political subjects of Architecture, Urban Design, and the woes and wherefores of Wellington’s tediously drawn-out Mass Rapid Transport project that I fear will not even be started before I die. But it was big news, I’ll give you that, and apart from the tears and the gallant fisherman and the wee bairn, and a brilliantly stage-managed way to take the wind out of National’s sails, our PM Jacinda has made the right decision. Although politicians say it all the time, in this case I think it may actually really be true: she wants to spend more time with her family.
I want to look back at her legacy for the country – or should I say, the legacy for the party she led, during the past 5 years, in architectural terms. Yes, she performed wonderfully and was a bloody good emotional leader through the horrific slaughter down in Christchurch by that crazed fuckwit Australian murderer, and through the volcanic balls-up at Whakari as well, where our tourist industry almost died a horrible death as well as a score of tourists. She also kept the country clamped down on the good Doctor Ashley’s advice, without doubt saving tens of thousands of people’s lives. Proportionally, we have one of the lowest Covid death rates in the world, due to the simple fact of keeping us still and immobile until the scientists developed a reasonable vaccine, a simple fact that the idiots who invaded Parliament still can’t comprehend.
But there were side effects on the country – no worse than any other country – and that was business and business confidence. Yes, it would have been politically more truthful and honest to say right at the start of the whole Covid lock-down thing that: People will die, Businesses will go bust, and the Tourism / Hospo industry should find other jobs for the next 4 years, starting immediately. It seemed obvious to me, so I can’t figure out why the heck it wasn’t obvious to the people actually in the industry. Some places understood, and acted promptly, like the Bresolin, a favourite eatery that shut up shop for good back in 2020 when Level 2 lockdown ensued. It must have been a tough decision to make – but for many hospo businesses, it was realistically the only decision to make. But the hospitality industry is not the architectural industry, I hear you say! True, but one industry occupies the buildings of the other – and then the other celebrates by drinking at the businesses of the first, if you follow my queasy, late night logic.
The media are already frothing at the bit as I write, with Andrea Vance getting really bitchy, stuff writer Luke Malpass keeping it straight, while veteran reporter Josie Pagani totally goes all knives out in an assassination attempt. Yes, the country has changed, but then so has the world, over the past 3 years. We have a homeless problem – welcome to the club. Everywhere has a homeless problem. Our immigration is buggered – so is every other country. We don’t have enough housing – nor does any country, or so it seems, despite the fact that everyone has left town and returned home to their own country. All these points are inter-related of course – our construction industry needs builders and labourers, just as much as our fruit-picking industry. Our baristas have all gone back to Brazil, while our nurses have decamped back to the Phillipines. The labourers were all from Thailand but have now vanished, and in Europe, even the Poles have gone home to Poland. The world economy, a rocky, cliff-top teetering act at the best of times, has just realised that right now is really not the best of times at all. Putting it bluntly, in world economy terms, we’re all fucked, because our governments made up a whole lot of money that didn’t exist, and then gave it away to stop all our jobs disappearing over the Covid years.
But there are some fantastic achievements, which the media have not yet remembered, particularly on the housing front. Although it consumed one Minister (Phil Twyford, remember him?) who was left out to dry over an over-ambitious number of possible houses, and Housing and Construction and other portfolios were traded back and forth in an undignified fashion between various somewhat incompetent ministers, we finally ended up with Megan Wood, who has actually been quietly getting on with building Kainga Ora into an awesome construction machine. Is it right that the Government are building new dwellings? Or do you believe, like National and ACT do, that “the market” will provide? If so, you’re dreaming!
If you cast your mind back to the years of John Key and Bill English, Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith, collectively the most unimaginative and stultifying group of men that ever walked on planet Earth, remember that Blinglish wanted the Housing Corp to sell off its housing portfolio, under the mis-guided belief that “the market economy would provide” houses for the poor, houses for the middle class, and houses for the rich. Well, two out of three ain’t bad, as Meatloaf once sang. Blinglish could not, would not say that we had a housing crisis, even as the streets filled up with mothers and children sleeping in cars. Brownlee, clearly out of his depth as a woodwork teacher, was asked to mastermind the rebuild of Aotearoa’s second biggest city, and promptly demolished the entire city down to bare gravel. It is unbelievable that he still exists in Parliament, hanging on for grim death until he can get the chance to be in Government again, and now he is ear-marked as the Minister for Foreign Affairs, undoubtedly looking forward to Government paid foreign travel on several whirlwind tours around the globe shaking hands before he dies.
Sorry – rant over. Got sidetracked. Must not dwell on the past – must stay relentlessly focused on a future founded on relentless positivity, as Ardern did when she was first elected. Let’s have a quick look at the Kainga Ora annual report for 2021-22, which is the most up-to-date report on their work that I can find. They say:
“Despite the challenges, we continue to provide homes at unprecedented levels. Alongside
our build partners and contractors, we have delivered over 10,900 newly built public and support houses in five years, with thousands more to come. The gross 1,815 new homes delivered in 2021/22 represented an increase of close to 290 per cent on 2016/17 figures.” and then goes onto say:
“In the past year, Kāinga Ora delivered more than 1,815 gross (and 1,340 net) newly-built public and supported homes. We continue to increase the number of newly-built homes and replace our stock that is at the end of its useful life. We are also making more of our older homes warmer, drier and healthier by retrofitting 354 homes and upgrading over 19,000 additional homes which meet the Healthy Homes Standards. Our urban development programme has been paving the way for our 15- to 20-year build programme to deliver more than 37,000 homes to meet significant regional demand. Last year we completed civil construction works on more than 86 superlots for our development partners that will enable delivery of over 1,800 public, affordable and market homes.”
So it would seem that at it’s present rate, KO is providing a steady stream of around 1800-2200 new houses per year. This is a different figure from KiwiBuild, which had originally targeted 10,000 new homes per year (100,000 over ten years), but remember that KB was aiming at new homes for sale, whereas KO is all about retaining ownership of homes by the state. Completely different beasts. And yes, we all know now that KB really never worked at all, having delivered only handfuls of houses over the Ardern years, but we should all be proud of the achievements of KO over this same period. It was said once that NZ had a national State housing shortfall of about 50,000 houses. That target of 37,000 houses by KO will take, at current build rates and funding rates, between 16-20 years to achieve, and reach 75% of the target, but if we are still short of 100,000 workers to fill the boots of baristas and apple-pickers, the private sector somehow also needs to step up to provide many thousands of houses as well. Houses not for the rich, and not for the middle classes, but rentable housing by the working class of Aotearoa, which seems to be the next looming great hole for us to face.
But will KO be allowed to continue to to build at the same rate if National & ACT get back in? It is a prodigiously expensive machine to run. Although, thankfully, Blinglish, Smith and Jonkey are all gone from the scene, the reins are in the hands of the bland blamange of Luxton, with Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop as deputies, and the evil twisted stepmother figure of Judith Collins hiding close behind. I’m really puzzled by the media fawning over these people – having met Willis and Bishop, I’m really not impressed. Bishop is as thick as a plank of wood, if not two planks, and yet is also earmarked for the portfolios of Infrastructure, Housing, RMA Reform and Urban Development, which does not bode well for NZ.
Meanwhile, Willis is devoid of personality. However, Willis is also the brains behind the National side of the MDRS debacle that the country has been foist with, being the only piece of legislation (ever?) that both Nat and Labour have agreed on, with Megan Wood equally to blame. I think we all know that this policy will ultimately end in tragedy, on architectural terms anyway. Bill English may get his way after all, having said many years ago, that the answer to the housing crisis was going to have to be that “we would have to get a little bit ugly” in terms of design. God help us if National get back in.
I thoroughly agree. And I would add that the extreme misogyny aimed at Ardern by the far right and anti-vaxxers and anti-1080ers etc. etc. (have a look at the nasty attack stickers plastered around Tauranga for example) is also a reflection of our national psyche. As a lovely Australian friend said to us, after a few months on work exchange at an Auckland law firm – ‘Wow us ozzies have the tall poppy syndrome, and we get out the pinking shears and lop a few flower heads off, but my god – New Zealanders – you get the weed eater onto the plant, and cut and cut, and cut it right down to the roots.’
Thanks Tom – and yes, absolutely right there. It seems quite prevalent from Tauranga and north – all my Auckland friends seem to be anti-Jacinda. I’m not picking up any of that from my Wellington friends. Sadly I have no friends in Tauranga… But yes, it is pure unadulterated sexism. There is a whole lot of pathetic little men that cannot stand being controlled by a woman that is younger, cleverer, prettier and more capable than them. Surprisingly many women as well.
I’m the opposite. I absolutely love that we have one of the world’s youngest, cleverest, and most empathetic leaders at our helm, and not just that – we had Helen Clark as well who was also highly competent at running a country, but we also have Dame Cindy Kiro as Governor General, who is a wonderfully warm and friendly and highly capable leader too. Coupled with that, my boss is a woman – far more capable than any of the men who were in the running for her job – I really am very pro-women. They make great leaders. Sweeping generalisation? Yes, of course, but I don’t think we would have a war in Ukraine if Putin was a woman, for instance.
You might have problems convincing Argentinians that woman leaders are not bellicose…
On a slightly more on-theme topic. I would really like to see a public housing for dummies graphic. How many houses built/bought by the NZ Government in each of the last 20 years, say? And a simple set of numbers year-on-year showing growth and shrinkage of the total public housing stock.
Tis but a OIA request away, Starky. ;D
https://kaingaora.govt.nz/contact-us/make-an-official-information-act-oia-request/
It’s beyond my capabilities Starkive ! Plus, I don’t think it as simple an answer as you state. Certainly, for a number of years, the figure may have even been going in reverse, as KO bought up existing houses, and demolished them, then re-planned the land, re-worked the property boundaries, and then finally built houses – more houses than there were before. In simple terms the number of houses on any one site is likely to have gone:
One
None
Two
Maybe Three
Sometimes even Four.
I’ll dig around and see if I have any more figures on the total numbers for the last few years
You really don’t need to be sad that you have no friends in Tauranga.
“KO is providing a steady stream of around 1800-2200 new houses per year. ”
Be careful with KOs numbers,
They might be new “public” housing, but that doesn’t mean they are actually totally new stock
“Kāinga Ora delivered more than 1,815 gross (and 1,340 net) newly-built public and supported homes.”
So net 1300, new “and Supported homes” Supported homes include CHPs, Community Housing Providers,
There is a good dashboard by HUD on what’s happening in the public housing sector here
https://www.hud.govt.nz/stats-and-insights/the-government-housing-dashboard/change-in-public-homes/#tabset
It shows that since 2017, there has been a net increase in public housing stock of 11K, but only 4K is KO, 7K are CHPs, and the CHP figure includes 4200 “redirects”
“Redirects are broadly CHP housing places that do not come through HUD’s new supply programme. They are largely delivered when existing houses (mainly affordable rentals) are converted to IRRS funded public housing places.”
https://www.hud.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Documents/01.-BRF2021010855-Implementing-changes-to-enable-CHPs-to-support-delivery-of-the-Public-Housing-Plan-2021-2024-REDACTED.PDF
Also the KO figure includes 2.5K buy -ins or leases…..
So over 5 years the net 10K net comes back to around a net additions to “total housing stock” could be as low as 2300 from KO and 1800 from the CHP sector- 4200/5 years or 850 a year
Now, this is not saying that KO are not doing good work, they are building houses, BUT most of them are replacing VERY old and frankly worn out stock… also expanding the public pool when there is a 20K waiting list is vital…
But if if comes at the expense of stock form the private market does this actually help with the overall NZ housing problem, arguably it contributes to pushing up private rents by shrinking the private renting pool.
So yip the quality of life for many of its tenants are being significantly improved, but their contribution to increasing the net housing stock in NZ is very negligible compared to the 10000s of private builds being completed annually
Arguably there is always a place for cheap and crappy housing in the market, as well as fully compliant, fully warmed, properly built houses. I know that may seem wrong for me to be saying, but I’ve been a beneficiary of this before, obviously in student years, but also later. The flat I lived in in London I rented for only 60 quid a week – it has since been done up and goes for something stupid like 1100 a week… couldn’t have lived in London if I had had to pay full price!
The housing changes by this govt are huge, and if they remained would go a long long way to solving housing affordability in the long term. KO build rate, the NPS-UD, MDRS, a 10 year bright line test and removing interest deductibility are collectively a massive step to solving that problem. Unfortunately the Nats will reinstate interest deductibility, reduce/remove the bright line test, stop KO from building, and water down the NPS-UD and the MDRS.
One note: I think the net build rate is more important – Much of KOs building is happening on KO land where they are demolishing existing homes.
Hi Conor – I’m sure you are right about most of that, but one possible correction: Nats and Labour agreed on the basis for the MDRS, so I’m not sure that the Nats would want to relitigate that. Mind you, that was a measure pushed by Nicola Willis when she was backed by Judith Collins – and tweaked at the very last minute by Luxton – it’s a fairly crap piece of legislation at the best of times, so it might be hard to make it worse! I certainly don’t think they would delete it outright – unless the good citizens of Remuera have an alternative up their sleeves?
ACT has a bespoke policy which appeals to neoliberal principals but would not do anything in practice. Perfect. Zoning at the micro level trading off with neighbours I think.
I would note that the KO image you’ve used is the sort of housing enabled by the MDRS, which is currently not enabled in probably 85% of the land area of NZs cities. Maybe it won’t be such a disaster afer all.
My bet is we’ll see something that looks like a minor change but in effect drops almost every site to 2 stories – a change to side boundaries and recession planes or something.
I hope that you are right about the MDRS Conor, but I think you may be disappointed. The reason for this is that while KO can – and does – buy up multiple houses and create a superset, which is then planned out and built as a coordinated whole, most of the private sector cannot operate on that scale. One of the likely problems will be when a homeowner wants to put 3 units, each 3 stories high, where previously only one house stood before. The neighbours on either side in this case will feel abused, and no doubt will moan and complain and make a big fuss to the press – because the Council is simply not allowed to refuse this happening, nor can they impose any conditions on the home-developer, in terms of looks.
Re the trade off, I still think it is unlikely, because Willis and Luxon/Luxton had already watered the MDRS down from 6m side height, to 5m side height, and eventually passing it into law with 4m and 60º – so, seeing as they had agreed it a year ago, seems no reason for them to change it this October?
I’m actually really in favour of the MDRS, if it were implemented well. It needs the checks and balances installed – in favour of something to enforce quality levels instead of just allowing crap everywhere…
So Starkive, thanks to Greenwelly, and his link to the HUD website above:
https://www.hud.govt.nz/stats-and-insights/the-government-housing-dashboard/change-in-public-homes/#tabset
I’ve posted up a couple of charts from the HUD onto the end of the post – showing that most of this housing goes to Auckland (which I think we had all already guessed that), and that in the timeline graph, it shows a steady rate of increase, in overall houses. That doesn’t include the pluses and minuses, only the final numbers.
Thanks Greenwelly!
If David Seymour & his cohorts wag the dog in a Luxon-led government, what possibility NZ will have a proper sequel to the 1981 Tour? This time, “Halt All Racist Tours” would be “business out of government, tax the rich!”, & “Keep Politics Out of Sport” would be “government out of business, taxation is theft!”
Although I agree with very few of Ardern’s government’s policies, I do not agree with all of the bullshit people (men) threw her way
As an old school individual would say – “play the ball, not the (wo)man”
My local MP is now the PM elect but I think that may not last long. Woods and Hipkins have been overall good pairs of hands but Poto Williams was woeful and watching that Health minister try throwing Ashley under the bus was like reality TV ie appalling
Luxon is a tone-deaf corporate shill who has already shown poor decision making skills, ie when Ardern ruled out working with NZ First he would have been much smarter to also say that he wouldn’t work with them and bang, there would go the future of one untrustworthy bunch
Boy couldn’t lie straight in a hospital stretcher
General points ( I have been drinking)
In the age of Chat GPT / Claude a blog is no longer an outmoded concept – your voice is distinct and inimitable
https://scale.com/blog/chatgpt-vs-claude
When we had Helen Clark running the show and a female Governer General we also had Sian Elias as the Chief Justice honcho so the 3-way balance of Executive/Admin/Enforcement was all women
The place ran pretty bloody well and i was always proud to raise the point that the whole shebang was run by women
Also Helen copped a shitload of flak too – remember all the Lesbian rumour bullshit?
I would love to see Nat and Lab do more common agreements like around housing – KO should be encouraged to keep the “pepper-potting” of having houses all over the place because it stops slum creation and it reinforces to the odd Khandallah thickos that poor people exist
Honestly I have met a couple from Khndh who are Creationists, truly they walk among us
Also simple logical things like standardising the systems across all the health boards and conglomerating them down to a more sensible number ie less than 10
Architecturally speaking there may yet be a few standardised common designs that could be adapted to different sites for a cost advantage – our NZ bespoke houses are often poorly built
Sorry bad news for celebrating architecture but cost and liveability also shape people’s decisions
I think that there is thin talent across the two main parties (Christ that Judith Collins should just fuck off and die) and agree National will be equally slack
Also the labourers were mostly Phillies in this neck of the woods and lately a few Indonesians – a lot of them smoke like trains, love fishing and karaoke as well as having great names like Hernando or Eduardo
Otherwise you are on the money and I will go back to shelling out $36k p/a in income tax for a govt that cannot do simple things right, be they blue or red
Where’s a Zelensky when you need one?
“Where’s a Zelensky when you need one?”
I think we had one. And we are watching her go with a shrug. We haven’t had a special military operation aimed at us over the last five years, but just about every other apocalyptic horse has galloped by. We all know the roll call: volcanic ash; an insane assassin; obdurate farmers; health and housing collapses; cohabitation with Winston Peters; and, of course, pestilence. Given Ardern’s effectiveness in dealing with that shitstorm I think Zelensky would be lucky to have her.
In 2020 a whole lot of erstwhile National voters agreed that the PM was an extraordinary leader – but only, it seems, for as long as it took to see off the worst existential threats and get back to self-interest as usual. Then it was back to the Helen Clark-era of malicious misrepresentation and weird whispering campaigns – hugely amplified this time by social media.
Years ago, New Zealand’s political amnesia somehow recast the poisonous Robert Muldoon as a slightly grumpy old uncle. Is it going to repeat the trick in reverse? Will St Joan be remembered as a witch?
Easy on the hagiography there, Mr Stark. Can I call you Tony?
Ms Ardern promised a lot more than was delivered and painted herself into a corner
She lost her nerve at introducing a CGT of any real impact and for all the talk of climate change being this generation’s moonshot/ defining moment – ultimately her govt was too timid about effecting serious change
That would be fine if she was a Helen Clark mini-me selling herself as a safe caretaker of the nation but she fronted as a change agent, not quite a firebrand but certainly a major hinge point to a new future
I am glad that she cleaned up our ass-backward abortion laws, that was a good one
Light rail? no
3 waters? nyet
RNZ/TVNZ merger? nein
Polytech mega merger? fuggedaboutit
There was once a comedy artist who said that the perfect Listener headline would be “Does my house look big in this?” which was taking the piss out of middle class property holding worriers but I would bet a dollar to a dime that Ardern’s downward slide in terms of popularity has a close track to sliding house prices and yes, NZ is definitely that shallow
Look, National are completely pants as well, any party that let Gerry Brownlee in is obviously off their collective rockers but I think that the NZ public are going to perform their traditional volte face and say – your turn now
In some ways, although I don’t really want to see it, having National in power to have to deal with a coming recession, and to have to actually find solutions to the problems that they have always said “We won’t be doing that!” is probably a good thing. It’s all very well to say things when you are in opposition, but to actually have to pull them off when in power is a whole different kettle of fish. I mean, what will the Nats do about the policies that 60mPa mentions:
Light rail? no plan other than cars and buses?
3 waters? no plan, yet the infrastructure is crumbling and the rivers are helluva polluted by cow piss
RNZ/TVNZ merger? well, that always was a stupid idea, but funding is an issue, and by crikey, we have enough adverts to sink a ship already.
Polytech mega merger? what was all that about anyway? Who are those 3 “super-managers” and why are they getting paid half a million each – and why haven’t they accomplished anything? First thing that Hipkins may have to do after todays knees up in Ratana, is to sack himself as Education Minister!
I’ll believe the recession when I see it. Every media outlet has been banging on about it for 9 months, and yet….
It amazes me that seemingly no-one writing in NZ is writing about what China’s opening will do for NZ. Seems to have huge upside on all fronts, and likely to have most economic impact just as the supposed recession is meant to start.
I can agree with you on the recession front Conor – I don’t see any particular reasons for NZ to fall into a recession – other than that the rest of the world is already headed that way, and usually, when the USA or the UK catches a cold, we catch a fever. But apart from that, our vital signs are far better than many others.
Re China though, they’re in an awful state right now with Covid, and thousands of people there are dying every day, due mainly to the fact that their vaccine is not as good as Pfizer’s vaccine, combined with the fact that many more of them are unvaccinated. That’s going to slow them down economically for a while yet – on our building projects, getting supplies out of China is very erratic at present.